Two other winners name their charities

Two other winners in the 20020 electoral handicapping contests have named their charities to receive $100. Paul, an ex Marine who served two tours in Iraq, has named DAV (Disabled American Veterans) Charitable Service Trust (https://cst.dav.org/). He has also decided to donate to Seattle Compassion Services, the charity I donated to. If anyone wants to do the same, the website is https://seattlecompassion.com/.

Don’s charity is Giving Kitchen, which supports unemployed food-service workers (mostly due to COVID) in Atlanta: https://thegivingkitchen.org/. That’s near and dear to my heart as our son lost his restaurant job at the start of the pandemic.

So thank you, Paul and Don.


3 winners in 2020 election contest, and a new challenge

First of all, I overlooked one of the entries to this contest, and it looks like it’s a winner. Mark sent it this entry, which I missed:

Mark:

Changes to your handicapped picks:

Move from Trump to Biden: Florida, Georgia, Maine, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Move from Biden to Trump: -0- (none)

Mark said my 2020 presidential handicapping would have five wrong, and he is right. Mark was also the one who suggested how we would deal with the two states that split their electoral votes: Giving it to the candidate who got the highest number of votes in that state. Good thing he did, because I got one of them wrong. Maine should have been in the Biden column as he got three of the four votes available. I had Nebraska right as Trump got four of the five votes available.

Here’s what I got wrong:

I had these states for Trump. They went to Biden: Georgia, Maine, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

I had this state for Biden, should have gone to Trump: North Carolina

Besides Mark, we had two other winners, who said I had five wrong:

Don K. 5 wrong:

Biden gets Florida, Maine, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Not Florida.

Paul: 5 wrong.

Biden gets Wisconsin, Maine, Pennsylvania, Florida and Georgia.

Not Florida

So, I have three charities that will receive $100 from me, plus I am going to donate $100 to Seattle Compassion Services since I also had five wrong. Mark, the “Mr. President” champion, was so sure that he would win that he listed his charity with his entry:

My charity is Operation Nightwatch

Fed nonprofit #: https://www.seattlenightwatch.org/about-us/financials/

donation page: 

https://connect.clickandpledge.com/w/Form/49906231-7abd-40fd-9e12-3571cf04e3eb

Don and Paul, what charities do you want to receive $100 from Outobut Polling?

Thank you to the others who participated in this handicapping adventure. Here is a participant medal you can cut out and hang next to your computer.

Also, we are not waiting for Trump tantrums, court cases, recounts, endless rounds of golf before he moves out of the White House. Even the nine jockeys in their black silk robes could not throw out this election. At least, I hope not.

And we have a suggestion for a new assignment from Claudia:

“I have a new assignment for you! I would love to see your cabinet picks. I want to see a diverse cabinet, and I would love to see a female majority. I have a lot of ideas and a lot of picks, but am always open for input and organization 😉

That is a big task. However, I am willing to give it a try. Let’s limit it to those who are in the line of succession and not the ones that have been added by presidents on top of those in the line of succession. The would mean that after the Vice President, the Speaker of the House and the President pro tempore of the Senate, these are in the line of succession:

  • Secretary of State, Department of State
  • Secretary of the Treasury, Department of the Treasury
  • Secretary of Defense, Department of Defense
  • Attorney General, Department of Justice
  • Secretary of the Interior, Department of the Interior
  • Secretary of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture
  • Secretary of Commerce, Department of Commerce
  • Secretary of Labor, Department of Labor
  • Secretary of Health & Human Services, Department of Health and Human Services
  • Secretary of Housing & Development, Department of Housing and Urban Development
  • Secretary of Transportation, Department of Transportation
  • Secretary of Energy, Department of Energy
  • Secretary of Education, Department of Education
  • Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Department of Veterans Affairs
  • Secretary of Homeland Security, Department of Homeland Security

Fifteen Cabinet spots. Prizes to be named later.

Dealing with election troubles from Maine, Nebraska and Mark

Benefit a charity of your choice by handing in by midnight today your list of how screwed up my presidential election handicapping is. Check my final electoral vote, list the number of my mistakes and what states I got wrong. Send your entry in a comment to this post.

Once all the electoral votes are counted – who knows when? – I will donate $100 to a non-political charity of your choice to the person who identifies or comes closest to the number of states I got wrong.

If I am perfect,  and you were all wrong, I will send $100 to Seattle Compassion Services, a group formed by Seattle Seawolves rugby player Eric Duechle to help people who are homeless in Seattle find a place to live.

So your entry could look like this:

“4 incorrect: Ohio, Texas, Florida and Pennsylvania. What were you thinking?”

Or,

“4 incorrect: Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada. Proud Boys coming for you.”

I won’t post the entries until Tuesday morning because I don’t want to give away any secret knowledge some of you may have. But I will share some of the comments I have received so far in emails and on different posts on Facebook.

Let’s start with Mark, who always was a troublemaker on and off the rugby pitch and learned his politics through “Mr. President”:

Hey John-

to give you something to do today,

you’ll wanna think about a hitch in your pick chart.

Maine & Nebraska – will very possibly be split electoral votes.

Maine has 4 in total, Nebraska has 5 in total.

Maine has 2 distinct electoral voting districts plus another 2 electoral votes based on total popular vote. Me2 is a tossup, but the other 3 electoral votes are likely Biden’s.

Nebraska has 3 distinct districts, each gets one electoral vote plus another 2 votes based on total popular vote. Ne2 will likely go to Biden, the other 4 to trump.

I think it fair for you to give the win to whoever picks and gets a majority of those two states’ electoral votes. (Ed. Note: Which is what we will do.)

Maybe not important to clarify that ahead of time.

(more comments below)

And from Chris:

John Boy – I appreciate the effort and thought that went into your analysis and tally. (Ed. Note: Effort and thought?) I am tempted to say it looks and then have horrifying flashbacks to the last election when I, like most everyone, was convinced that Hillary was a shoe in only to be gobsmacked by the outcome. With that in mind . . . I say Florida needs to come off your board as they seem deeply committed to screwing up every election and have some deeply incompetent republicans running the state and Texas goes into the maybe category. The voter suppression campaign that the republicans are running there is breathtaking in its scope and obvious intent. With an all republican state supreme court it will all be found to be legal . . . and thus my assessment. There will be a huge blue wave in Texas but it will likely crash on the rocks of the voter suppression. The republicans today filed suit to toss out over 120k ballots

(Updated here: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/us/trump-vs-biden?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage#a-federal-judge-denies-a-bid-by-texas-republicans-to-throw-out-more-than-127000-votes)

that were cast in drive in voting as they think the counties went beyond the law to permit it. You see if you think the virus is a hoax then there is no need for drive through voting . . . you can just risk your life and do it in person!!!!

And Lee is still trying to convince me that Ohio can go to Biden:

As your classmate of 1966, (Ed. Note: Go, Tigers!), and lifelong adult resident of Franklin County, Ohio, COVID-19 will be what is at stake for the urban and suburban areas, even in the wealthy suburbs. In 2016, I saw tons of Trump signs in the wealthy suburbs. This year, yard signs for Trump are few and far between throughout Central Ohio. Yard signs alone are not strong enough evidence to predict a race. Hoping that the believers in science and the incredible losses so many Ohioans have and will endure, the better angels will prevail.

But Pam writes:

All I see in NW Ohio is Trump signs and flags EVERYWHERE!!!

😩

Speaking of signs. . .  here’s one in my neighborhood:

My final answer. Get your charity in line for my donation

Here’s my final handicapping of the 2020 presidential election. Remember my offer: I will donate $100 to a non-political charity of your choice if you come closest to identifying what I got wrong.

Here are the 50 states and the District of Columbia and their electoral votes that I expect to go to either President Donald Trump or to former Vice President Joe Biden. Take a look at them and tell me what I got wrong. List my mistakes and tally how many I had incorrectly.

You have to respond in a comment to this post before midnight (PST), Monday, Nov. 2. That is, before election day starts here in Seattle.

When the electoral votes are all counted, we will determine who has correctly — or is closest — to the number of entries I got wrong. That person can name a non-political charity, and I will send it $100.

If I am perfect,  and you were all wrong, I will send $100 to Seattle Compassion Services, a group formed by Seattle Seawolves rugby player Eric Duechle to help people who are homeless in Seattle find a place to live.

Let’s talk about this: “When the electoral votes are all counted.”

That could be some time in the future – after a civil war some people are predicting, after the Supreme Court has its way with the election results or if the Congress gets in the way. The winner of this election will not be formally known until Jan. 3, 2021, according to the Pew Study linked above – and here: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/22/election-night-marks-the-end-of-one-phase-of-campaign-2020-and-the-start-of-another/ (Thanks to Drew DeSilver, a Seattle Times alum, for a clear explanation of the U.S. presidential election process.)

We may have to wait until then to send the money to the chosen charity, but I hope not. And no matter what war, the courts or the Congress do on this election, the winner here will be based on the assigned electoral votes to each state. So your answer could be:

“4 incorrect: Ohio, Texas, Florida and Pennsylvania. What were you thinking? Dated, July 15, 2025.”

Or,

“4 incorrect: Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada. You’re under arrest. Jan. 4, 2021.”

Find my mistakes, win $$$ for your charity

By noon Friday, Oct. 30, 2020, I will post my final handicapping of the 2020 presidential election. And then it is your turn to see what I got wrong and win some money for your non-political charity.

I will assign 50 states and the District of Columbia and their electoral votes to either President Donald Trump or to former Vice President Joe Biden. Take a look at them and tell me what I got wrong. List my mistakes and tally how many I had incorrectly.

You have to respond in a comment to my Friday final post before midnight (PST), Monday, Nov. 2. That is, before election day starts here in Seattle — although those on the East Coast will be three hours into election day.

When the electoral votes are all counted, we will determine who has correctly — or is closest — to the number of entries I got wrong. That person can name a non-political charity, and I will send it $100.

If I am perfect,  and you were all wrong, I will send $100 to Seattle Compassion Services, a group formed by Seattle Seawolves rugby player Eric Duechle to help people who are homeless in Seattle find a place to live.

Taking into consideration what people have told me in the past day, this is the latest tally — Texas back to Trump, Ohio goes to Biden.