Not journalism: Handicapping 2020 presidential race

10/13/2020 update: I’ve been going back and forth on Too-Rye-Ay‘s tip to include Ohio in the Biden stable. But after seeing a video of a tRump rally in Clyde, Ohio, where maddened Buckeyes were going wild in the streets as if the Ohio State football team was running through them instead of black Secret Service SUVs, I moved Ohio back to tRump.

I also had to retype this spreadsheet because it did not come over to my new computer from my old, and very broken, desktop. In doing so, I found South Carolina in the tRump pile. Given that South Carolina put Biden over the top in the primary, it seemed out of place. So with S.C. properly placed in my handicapping formula, that leaves tRump with 224 electoral votes. He’ll need 46 votes from the states I have listed as “maybe.” Biden needs 12 to win the race. For once in my life, I might bet on Michigan and its 16 electoral votes to have Jill Biden and her clean-up crew in the White House to rid it of coronavirus.

Handicapping the 2020 presidential race
Trump Maybe Biden
State and electoral votes State and electoral votes State and electoral votes
Alabama 9 Arizona 11 California 55
Alaska 3 Iowa 6 Colorado 9
Arkansas 6 Michigan 16 Connecticut 7
Florida 29 Missouri 10 Delaware 3
Georgia 16 Maine 4 D.C. 3
Idaho 4 Wisconsin 10 Hawaii 4
Indiana 11 TOTAL 57 Illinois 20
Kansas 6 Maryland 10
Kentucky 8 Massachusetts 11
Louisiana 8 Minnesota 10
Mississippi 6 Nevada 6
Montana 3 New Hampshire 4
Nebraska 5 New Jersey 14
North Carolina 15 New Mexico 5
North Dakota 4 New York 29
Ohio 18 Oregon 7
Oklahoma 7 Pennsylvania 20
Rhode Island 4
South Dakota 3 Vermont 3
Tennessee 11 Virginia 13
Texas 38 Washington 12
Utah 6 South Carolina 9
West Virginia 5
Wyoming 3
TOTAL 224 TOTAL 258

7/30/2020 update: Great tip from Too-Rye-Ay that Ohio should be moved to Biden. Her comments:

Don’t count out Ohio for Biden. Lots of coronavirus here and the stats keep looking like the virus is winning. Also a Speaker of The Ohio House was just indicted for the worst case of racketeering in Ohio history (R). Senator Portman is not glowing in Central Ohio. Many central Ohio schools will be virtual this fall as well as some liberal arts colleges are going virtual. The biggest indicator will be if The Buckeyes will play football. My prediction—no. Oh and The Lincoln Project is running commercials focusing on Ohio. Keep fingers crossed for Democrat win November 2029.”

See updated chart below.

This is not journalism. This is a wild-ass guess at who’s going to win the 2020 presidential race. Like I do each week when I buy a Daily Racing Form and try to make money betting horses. If I bet on them, they lose.

Journalism would be researching, interviewing, using past knowledge to make a determination. This is not journalism.

These are like the pencil notes to myself on the DRF. I haven’t written down my bets yet. I’ll do that as the post time gets closer. But I can hear the “Call to Post,” and I’m willing to listen to anyone who might have a tip or two. Inside knowledge on your home state? Make a comment.

My final bet will be posted on the morning of Nov. 3, 2020. And the popular vote? That doesn’t seem to count anymore when a Republican is in the race. (Rutherford B. Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, George W. Bush, Donald tRump)

Handicapping the 2020 presidential race
Trump Maybe Biden
State and electoral votes State and electoral votes State and electoral votes
Alabama 9 Arizona 11 California 55
Alaska 3 Iowa 6 Colorado 9
Arkansas 6 Michigan 16 Connecticut 7
Florida 29 Missouri 10 Delaware 3
Georgia 16 Maine 4 D.C. 3
Idaho 4 Wisconsin 10 Hawaii 4
Indiana 11 TOTAL 57 Illinois 20
Kansas 6 Maryland 10
Kentucky 8 Massachusetts 11
Louisiana 8 Minnesota 10
Mississippi 6 Nevada 6
Montana 3 New Hampshire 4
Nebraska 5 New Jersey 14
North Carolina 15 New Mexico 5
North Dakota 4 New York 29
Oregon 7
Oklahoma 7 Pennsylvania 20
South Carolina 9 Rhode Island 4
South Dakota 3 Vermont 3
Tennessee 11 Virginia 13
Texas 38 Washington 12
Utah 6 Ohio 18
West Virginia 5
Wyoming 3
TOTAL 233 TOTAL 267

Staying, and looking more closely, at home

Pileated head
A pileated woodpecker on one of the “environmental” trees (old and rotting) we have in our yard. Thanks to Jack B. for helping with technical issues on this shot.

Pileated body

We have barely left our home in the past five months. While I have hated to see planned trips to Arkansas, Ohio, Georgia and California go by the way side, I have started looking at our home more closely. Doing the best job on the vegetable garden in years (strawberry-rhubarb jam, raspberry jam and pickled beans stored for the winter as stay-at-home orders continue). And I have tried to photograph some of the nature that happens so close by.

Spider
Not good news for a bee. A goldenrod crab spider eating a bumble bee. Crab spiders don’t spin webs; they hide in blossoms and grab pollinators for their meals.

Couldn’t sleep at all until hearing the Ballard opera singer

After reading The Seattle Times story on Stephen Wall, the Ballard opera singer who gives free front yard concerts, I could not sleep until we had attended one, which we did last night. A nice walk from our friend’s house nearby, listened to the concert with several others (we should have brought our camping chairs) and then a walk for a nice sandwich at Un Bien, worth a revisit. I recommend the “Press, morsels of roasted pork nestled atop banana peppers, draped with slices of smoked ham, and Swiss cheese, melted together in a hot press.”

We were masked and physically distanced from Wall and others.

This has been the social event of the past four months.

In case you wanted to sing along, here are the lyrics:

No sleep!
Nessun dorma!

No sleep!
Nessun dorma!

You too, oh Princess
Tu pure, oh Principessa

In your cold room
Nella tua fredda stanza

Look at the trembling stars
Guardi le stelle che tremano

Of love and hope
D’amore e di speranza

But my mystery is closed in me
Ma il mio mistero è chiuso in me

No one will know my name
Il nome mio nessun saprà

No, no, I’ll say it on your mouth
No, no, sulla tua bocca lo dirò

When the light shines
Quando la luce splenderà

And my kiss will melt
Ed il mio bacio scioglierà

The silence that makes you mine
Il silenzio che ti fa mia

(No one will know his name
(ll nome suo nessun saprà

And we should, alas, die, die)
E noi dovrem, ahimè, morir, morir)

Vanish, oh night
Dilegua, oh notte

Set, stars
Tramontate, stelle

Set, stars
Tramontate, stelle

I’ll win at dawn
All’alba vincerò

Will win
Vincerà

Vincerò
Vincerò