Are my readers all socialist? Biden 362, Trump 156, Maybe 20

One rule in betting horses that I have tried to follow is “Never change your mind at the window.” Don’t overthrow all the handicapping you have put into this race by listening to those in line around you or succumbing to your own inner doubts.

More times than I can count, I have lost a bet because of changing my mind at the window right before laying down my money. Only one time can I remember when it worked out OK. That was in the 1960s at Beulah Park, which closed in 2014. It was my first visit to a Thoroughbred track (after a youth brought up on Standardbred horses and sulky racing), and the guy behind me said he was betting the 5-4 Quinella. I had never heard of a Quinella, but I said “5-4 Quinella” to the teller and won 50 bucks.

And that was the last time that ever worked.

But right now I am listening to those commenting on my handicapping efforts:

Mark says, “I thought Pennsylvania was still up for grabs.” It is, and it goes into the “Maybe” stack.

David says, “Ok, I’ll take Florida and NC as Biden. And Michigan and Wisconsin.” That’s a lot of electoral votes for Biden, which would give him the win unless there is an October surprise that people can actually believe. As George T. Conway III said in an article this week in the Washington Post, who could believe that “Hunter Biden flew from his home in Los Angeles to Philadelphia, and then took a train to Delaware, because he needed a legally blind repairman there to fix his laptop.” Gotta do better, Rudy.

Charley says, “When people vote without the ability to do critical thinking, it is impossible to guess how they would vote. That said, what the hell – Florida votes for Biden. viola – Biden is President.”

Laura says, “I’m not so sure about *gasp* Texas. According to NPR, Texas: Trump 47.6%- Biden 47.5% (Trump +0.1)
https://www.npr.org/…/5-things-to-watch-in-the-final…” So Texas moves to Biden, even though Laura is actually doing research and journalism, which has not shown itself previously in my handicapping the presidential race.

Here’s the result:

Obviously, I have been hanging around with left-wing, socialist Democrats, many of whom live in an anarchist jurisdiction. I have a feeling that my final WAG will not look quite as rosy for Biden.

Win money for your charity

My final handicapping will be posted by noon (PDT) on Friday, Oct. 30, 2020. I will assign 50 states and the District of Columbia and their electoral votes to either President Donald Trump or to former Vice President Joe Biden. Take a look at them and tell me what I got wrong. List my mistakes and tally how many I had incorrectly.

You have to respond in a comment to my Friday final post before midnight (PST – Daily light Savings Time ends at 2 a.m. Sunday), Monday, Nov. 2 — that is, before election day starts.

When the electoral votes are all counted, we will determine who has correctly — or is closest — to the number of entries I got wrong. That person can name a non-political charity, and I will send it $100.

If I am perfect,  and you were all wrong, I will send $100 to Seattle Compassion Services, a group formed by Seattle Seawolves rugby player Eric Duechle to help people who are homeless in Seattle find a place to live.

“Do not compute the totality of your poultry population until all the manifestations of incubation have been entirely completed.”

William Jennings Bryan

Handicap my handicapping and win $$$ — for your charity

At noon (PDT) on Friday, Oct. 30, 2020, I will post my final handicapping on the 2020 presidential election. I will assign 50 states and the District of Columbia and their electoral votes to either President Donald Trump or to former Vice President Joe Biden. You take a look at them and tell me what I got wrong. List my mistakes and tally how many I got wrong.

You have to respond in a comment to my Friday final post before midnight, Monday, Nov. 2 — that is, before election day starts.

When the electoral votes are all counted, we will determine who has correctly — or is closest — to the number of entries I got wrong. That person can name a non-political charity and I will send it $100.

Eric Duechle

If I am perfect (Ha!) and you were all wrong, I will send $100 to Seattle Compassion Services, a group formed by Seattle Seawolves rugby player Eric Duechle to help people who are homeless in Seattle find a place to live.

But before you look at my electoral WAG, please do this: VOTE!

Here’s where I am now in considering the election results:

Not journalism: Handicapping 2020 presidential race

10/13/2020 update: I’ve been going back and forth on Too-Rye-Ay‘s tip to include Ohio in the Biden stable. But after seeing a video of a tRump rally in Clyde, Ohio, where maddened Buckeyes were going wild in the streets as if the Ohio State football team was running through them instead of black Secret Service SUVs, I moved Ohio back to tRump.

I also had to retype this spreadsheet because it did not come over to my new computer from my old, and very broken, desktop. In doing so, I found South Carolina in the tRump pile. Given that South Carolina put Biden over the top in the primary, it seemed out of place. So with S.C. properly placed in my handicapping formula, that leaves tRump with 224 electoral votes. He’ll need 46 votes from the states I have listed as “maybe.” Biden needs 12 to win the race. For once in my life, I might bet on Michigan and its 16 electoral votes to have Jill Biden and her clean-up crew in the White House to rid it of coronavirus.

Handicapping the 2020 presidential race
Trump Maybe Biden
State and electoral votes State and electoral votes State and electoral votes
Alabama 9 Arizona 11 California 55
Alaska 3 Iowa 6 Colorado 9
Arkansas 6 Michigan 16 Connecticut 7
Florida 29 Missouri 10 Delaware 3
Georgia 16 Maine 4 D.C. 3
Idaho 4 Wisconsin 10 Hawaii 4
Indiana 11 TOTAL 57 Illinois 20
Kansas 6 Maryland 10
Kentucky 8 Massachusetts 11
Louisiana 8 Minnesota 10
Mississippi 6 Nevada 6
Montana 3 New Hampshire 4
Nebraska 5 New Jersey 14
North Carolina 15 New Mexico 5
North Dakota 4 New York 29
Ohio 18 Oregon 7
Oklahoma 7 Pennsylvania 20
Rhode Island 4
South Dakota 3 Vermont 3
Tennessee 11 Virginia 13
Texas 38 Washington 12
Utah 6 South Carolina 9
West Virginia 5
Wyoming 3
TOTAL 224 TOTAL 258

7/30/2020 update: Great tip from Too-Rye-Ay that Ohio should be moved to Biden. Her comments:

Don’t count out Ohio for Biden. Lots of coronavirus here and the stats keep looking like the virus is winning. Also a Speaker of The Ohio House was just indicted for the worst case of racketeering in Ohio history (R). Senator Portman is not glowing in Central Ohio. Many central Ohio schools will be virtual this fall as well as some liberal arts colleges are going virtual. The biggest indicator will be if The Buckeyes will play football. My prediction—no. Oh and The Lincoln Project is running commercials focusing on Ohio. Keep fingers crossed for Democrat win November 2029.”

See updated chart below.

This is not journalism. This is a wild-ass guess at who’s going to win the 2020 presidential race. Like I do each week when I buy a Daily Racing Form and try to make money betting horses. If I bet on them, they lose.

Journalism would be researching, interviewing, using past knowledge to make a determination. This is not journalism.

These are like the pencil notes to myself on the DRF. I haven’t written down my bets yet. I’ll do that as the post time gets closer. But I can hear the “Call to Post,” and I’m willing to listen to anyone who might have a tip or two. Inside knowledge on your home state? Make a comment.

My final bet will be posted on the morning of Nov. 3, 2020. And the popular vote? That doesn’t seem to count anymore when a Republican is in the race. (Rutherford B. Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, George W. Bush, Donald tRump)

Handicapping the 2020 presidential race
Trump Maybe Biden
State and electoral votes State and electoral votes State and electoral votes
Alabama 9 Arizona 11 California 55
Alaska 3 Iowa 6 Colorado 9
Arkansas 6 Michigan 16 Connecticut 7
Florida 29 Missouri 10 Delaware 3
Georgia 16 Maine 4 D.C. 3
Idaho 4 Wisconsin 10 Hawaii 4
Indiana 11 TOTAL 57 Illinois 20
Kansas 6 Maryland 10
Kentucky 8 Massachusetts 11
Louisiana 8 Minnesota 10
Mississippi 6 Nevada 6
Montana 3 New Hampshire 4
Nebraska 5 New Jersey 14
North Carolina 15 New Mexico 5
North Dakota 4 New York 29
Oregon 7
Oklahoma 7 Pennsylvania 20
South Carolina 9 Rhode Island 4
South Dakota 3 Vermont 3
Tennessee 11 Virginia 13
Texas 38 Washington 12
Utah 6 Ohio 18
West Virginia 5
Wyoming 3
TOTAL 233 TOTAL 267