One rule in betting horses that I have tried to follow is “Never change your mind at the window.” Don’t overthrow all the handicapping you have put into this race by listening to those in line around you or succumbing to your own inner doubts.
More times than I can count, I have lost a bet because of changing my mind at the window right before laying down my money. Only one time can I remember when it worked out OK. That was in the 1960s at Beulah Park, which closed in 2014. It was my first visit to a Thoroughbred track (after a youth brought up on Standardbred horses and sulky racing), and the guy behind me said he was betting the 5-4 Quinella. I had never heard of a Quinella, but I said “5-4 Quinella” to the teller and won 50 bucks.
And that was the last time that ever worked.
But right now I am listening to those commenting on my handicapping efforts:
Mark says, “I thought Pennsylvania was still up for grabs.” It is, and it goes into the “Maybe” stack.
David says, “Ok, I’ll take Florida and NC as Biden. And Michigan and Wisconsin.” That’s a lot of electoral votes for Biden, which would give him the win unless there is an October surprise that people can actually believe. As George T. Conway III said in an article this week in the Washington Post, who could believe that “Hunter Biden flew from his home in Los Angeles to Philadelphia, and then took a train to Delaware, because he needed a legally blind repairman there to fix his laptop.” Gotta do better, Rudy.
Charley says, “When people vote without the ability to do critical thinking, it is impossible to guess how they would vote. That said, what the hell – Florida votes for Biden. viola – Biden is President.”
Laura says, “I’m not so sure about *gasp* Texas. According to NPR, Texas: Trump 47.6%- Biden 47.5% (Trump +0.1)
https://www.npr.org/…/5-things-to-watch-in-the-final…” So Texas moves to Biden, even though Laura is actually doing research and journalism, which has not shown itself previously in my handicapping the presidential race.
Here’s the result:
Obviously, I have been hanging around with left-wing, socialist Democrats, many of whom live in an anarchist jurisdiction. I have a feeling that my final WAG will not look quite as rosy for Biden.
Win money for your charity
My final handicapping will be posted by noon (PDT) on Friday, Oct. 30, 2020. I will assign 50 states and the District of Columbia and their electoral votes to either President Donald Trump or to former Vice President Joe Biden. Take a look at them and tell me what I got wrong. List my mistakes and tally how many I had incorrectly.
You have to respond in a comment to my Friday final post before midnight (PST – Daily light Savings Time ends at 2 a.m. Sunday), Monday, Nov. 2 — that is, before election day starts.
When the electoral votes are all counted, we will determine who has correctly — or is closest — to the number of entries I got wrong. That person can name a non-political charity, and I will send it $100.
If I am perfect, and you were all wrong, I will send $100 to Seattle Compassion Services, a group formed by Seattle Seawolves rugby player Eric Duechle to help people who are homeless in Seattle find a place to live.
“Do not compute the totality of your poultry population until all the manifestations of incubation have been entirely completed.”William Jennings Bryan